Twas the Night Before the Season...

2010 NFL Playoff Predictions

AFC Wildcard

(6) Ravens over (3) Bengals
(5) Jets over (4) Patriots

NFC Wildcard

(3) Cowboys over (6) Vikings
(5) Falcons over (4) 49ers

AFC Divisional Playoffs

(1) Colts over (6) Ravens
(5) Jets over (2) Chargers

NFC Divisional Playoff

(1) Saints over (5) Falcons
(2) Packers over (3) Cowboys

AFC Championship Game

(1) Colts over (5) Jets

NFC Championship Game

2) Packers over (1) Saints

Super Bowl XLV

Packers 34 Colts 24

Individual Awards

MVP- Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers

Offensive Player of the Year- Drew Brees, QB, Saints

Defensive Player of the Year- Patrick Willis, LB, 49ers

Offensive Rookie of the Year- Ryan Mathews, HB, Chargers

Defensive Rookie of the Year- Eric Berry, S, Chiefs

Comeback Player of the Year- Wes Welker, WR, Patriots

Five Quick Questions and Answers About the 2010 Season

1. What is the most overlooked free agent departure of the offseason? Running back, Chester Taylor, who left the Minnesota Vikings for the Chicago Bears. He was the consummate safety valve for Brett Favre and a key playmaker on third down. He may not have gaudy stats but he was a steady, heady professional that has a knack for stepping up big on third downs.

2. Will Ben Roethlisberger’s four game suspension hurt the Steelers playoff chances? It kills them. They play in one of the toughest divisions in football. He will miss games against the Falcons, Titans, Bucs, and Ravens. They will enter their week five bye week with a 1-3 record. Roethlisberger will return in a game against the Browns (who beat the Steelers the last time they met) and then they will have three consecutive road games against the Dolphins, Saints, and Bengals. This is a team destined to watch the playoffs from home this year. Yes they have veteran leadership and great coaching but the “suspension” hole will be too big to dig out of this season.

3. Will the Oakland Raiders finally be competitive? Yes, the Raiders (yes, the Raiders) will finish second in the AFC West this year. The fact is this is a team that can run the ball and stop the run which makes them competitive in every game. Nnamdi Asomugha can shut down one side of the field in man situations allowing the defense to get creative with blitz packages. Also, the arrival of a competent quarterback, Jason Campbell, will help to keep defenses honest and allow for better management of the offensive game plan. Despite the lunacy of Al Davis this team will be competitive.

4. Are there holdouts that should have been worrying teams (and the media) more than the now resolved Darrelle Revis holdout? Absolutely, Marcus McNeil, left tackle, of the Chargers and Logan Mankins, guard, of the Patriots are two huge gaping holes in the offensive lines for those two teams. The Chargers are compromising their ability to protect their top flight quarterbacks and create running lanes on one side of the ball. These are huge issues for these teams that need to be resolved as soon as possible as they could have dramatic impact on these playoff caliber teams.

5. Name one rising star and one fading hero for the 2010 season? The rising star will be Kevin Kolb, QB, of the Philadelphia Eagles. He played well in the two games that he played last year in McNabb's absence and with the precision passing attack of the Eagles he will be able to capitalize on his accuracy, quick release, and cool demeanor. His receivers, while gnat-like, will help him out by running good, sound routes and getting yards after the catch. Overall the Eagles will take a step back but Kolb will take a step forward as a star in this league. Ironically, the fading hero will be Donovan McNabb. I like Donovan but I do not like the Washington Redskins as they are fatally flawed offensively. I think that offensively they have a weak group of receivers and the offensive line is not impressive. The running game will be so-so and is built upon the legs of two aging running backs in Clinton Portis and Larry Johnson. This spells disaster for McNabb particularly in light of his durability issues over the past few seasons.

Godspeed, Tony Richardson: Last of a Dying Breed

I think we can officially say that the fullback in the NFL is an endangered species. With the increase in passing, particularly out of three and four receiver sets (more than three receivers lined up on 49.2% of offensive plays in the league last year), in the league the fullback is a rarer and rarer breed. The Jets cut veteran fullback Tony Richardson on Saturday (there is talk that he will return after the first game). Richardson, over his career blocked for Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, Adrian Peterson, and Thomas Jones providing each with their career years. In 2000, injuries thrust him into the starting halfback role and he rushed for 647 yards at 4.7 yards per carry and had 468 receiving yards. He was poised to ascend to the role of primary back for the Chiefs when Priest Holmes arrived in Kansas City. Richardson selflessly returned to the fullback position and helped Holmes become one of the most dynamic backs in the league (see above picture, Richardson is #49). Richardson should be celebrated as one of the best to ever play his position and one of a handful of universally championed individuals in the game. He quietly achieved near perfection at his position and was a rock of leadership in the locker room. Reaction to Richardson being cut in the Jet's locker room was overwhelmingly disappointed. ESPN reported that one player simply said the move was "Terrible." while another player said, "[It's] f------ ridiculous."

Fullbacks are asked to punch open holes for 1,000-yard running backs, but also need to possess the capacity to catch outlet passes and pound out touchdowns on goal-line carries and first downs on short-yardage. The nature of their duties (non-glamorous) and the evolution of the league (whether Air Coryell, Joe Gibbs’ H-back system, or the Spread) leads to the fullback being an over looked, underutilized position. The West Coast offense does use a fullback extensively in various sets, passing routes, and blocking formations but even the West Coast has evolved beyond the original iteration introduced by Bill Walsh and his immediate disciples. Another example of the devolution of the fullback position is the Indianapolis Colts who did not even have a fullback on their 53 man roster last season. Even in the pro-bowl they are overlooked. For years Mike Alstott of the Tampa Bay Bucs booked his trip to Hawaii even though he was primarily used as a tailback and not a fullback (even Pro-Football-Reference.Com lists Alstott's position as RB and not FB).

Fullbacks are among the unsung heroes of the league. This year at the Hall of Fame induction ceremony, Emmitt Smith reminded us just how important fullbacks are and how important, Daryl “Moose” Johnston was to his career. Smith offered the following ode to his fullback:

Daryl Johnston, where are you? Will you please stand? You mean the world to me (tearing up) not just because we shared the same backfield, but because you sacrificed so much for me. People don’t understand what it took to be a fullback in our system, the sacrifices you made not simply with your body but your whole spirit. You took care of me as though you were taking care of your little brother. Without you, without you, I know today would not have been possible. I love you from the bottom of my heart.

You would hear the same thanks and devotion for those that Tony Richardson blocked for or for those (Warrick Dunn, Eddie George, Corey Dillon, LaDainian Tomlinson) that Lorenzo Neal (who retired after the 2008 NFL season), another modern great blocking back, blocked for.

There are currently no true blocking backs in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. There are fullbacks but they were primarily running backs and not blockers. Players such as Jim Taylor (Packers), Larry Csonka (Dolphins), and Jim Brown (Browns) are all listed as fullbacks but each clearly played a roles that made them primary ball carriers in some of the most heralded ground games of their times. Let’s hope, if this is indeed the end of the road for Tony Richardson, that the public and the Hall give him his due. The Hall is long overdue to induct a blocking back and I cannot think of any better inductees than Tony Richardson.

Are you ready for some football? College Football Preview

Big Ten Realignment

This week the Big Ten announced the divisions for the conference once Nebraska joins the Big Ten. The currently unnamed divisions will be: Michigan, Nebraska, Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota and Northwestern in one and Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Purdue and Indiana. Much of the media attention was on the fact that Michigan and Ohio State were in different divisions. I couldn’t care less about that. I dislike the lack of logic used to assemble the divisions. Look at the big conferences they use geography as a dividing line for divisions (see SEC and Big XII). The Big Ten officials said that they wanted to have competitive balance among the divisions. This is the same thing that the ACC said yet all of the power in the conference resides fully in the Coastal division with Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, and Miami.

The Big Ten should have simply, logically followed the geography of the conference. This, interestingly enough, does provide competitive balance and preserves regional rivalries. The divisions should have been:

East: Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, and Purdue

West: Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, and Nebraska

The Big Six

I do not like preseason polls in college football. They rely too heavily on a team’s performance from the previous year and have too much impact on the national championship race. Get rid of the BCS and I’m cool with the preseason polls. Keep the BCS and dump the polls until the first week of October. So I will give you the top six teams in the country in no particular order:

Texas, Ohio State, Boise State, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Florida

BCS Conference winners

Big East- Pitt will edge out Cincinnati and Connecticut
Big Ten- Ohio State with a challenge Iowa and Wisconsin
Big XII- Texas over Nebraska in the Big XII title game
Pac 10- It all comes down to the Civil War, Oregon over Oregon State
SEC- The pundits say Alabama but I’m going with Florida over Alabama in SEC Championship. Florida will struggle early but catch fire over the course of the season peaking in December and January.
ACC- The champion will come out of the Coastal division (the Atlantic is a putrid division). With North Carolina’s suspension issues, the edge goes to Virginia Tech once again.

Five solid teams that will not win their conferences

Iowa, Georgia Tech, Arkansas, Connecticut, and Stanford

Four Preseason Heisman Contenders and One Super Long Shot

Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State (my front runner and prediction)- He threw 39 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions as a sophomore and Boise State is loaded (returning 20 of 22 starters from last year’s 14-0 team).

Terrelle Pryor, QB, Ohio State- High profile player on a high profile team.

Dion Lewis, RB, Pitt- Rushed for nearly 1800 yards last year as a freshman.

Case Keenum, QB, Houston- An absolute stat monster. He threw for 5671 yards and 44 touchdowns.

Donald Buckram, RB, UTEP- Was fourth in rushing yards per game last season (132.8 yards) and will be running behind a solid, senior offensive line.

College Uniform Rankings

1. UCLA- Another “throwback” to a simpler time. The baby blue jerseys, created to provide contrast on black and white televisions make the uniform. This year they return to form by having only navy stripes and numbers on the road uniform.
2. Texas- Burnt Orange and white, admittedly an odd combo but its standard bearer for uniforms in college. Iconic logo and simple lines.
3. USC- Consistent, clean, and classic. The uniform trifecta. The simple helmet with the Trojan logo makes the set.
4. Michigan- Uniforms so nice that Rich Rodriguez could not even screw it up. The maize and blue are great but let's face it the helmet makes the uniform.
5. Ohio State- Only minor changes (to the stripes on the jersey) over the decades. The buckeyes on the helmet are a fall classic.
6. Notre Dame- Classic, iconic uniform. Some would say boring or antiquated. No, that’s Penn State. Also a fan of the super secret, rarely used green jersey. Will we see it more under Brian Kelly?
7. Ole Miss- A classic set with navy, grey, and red hearkening back to both the days of Archie Manning. Mirrors the Giants in the NFL in many ways.
8. Georgia- Classic combo with the silver pants, red jerseys, and red helmets with a black “Green Bay” G on them. Fans and Alums take the uni seriously and went crazy when the ‘Dogs introduced a black helmet. Never again.
9. Iowa- In my NFL rankings, I had the Steelers in the top ten. The Hawkeyes literally based their uniform design on the Steelers (down to the same pants and sleeve stripes)
1o. Clemson- When I was growing up, I spent 4 years in South Carolina and went to games at Death Valley. That experience and the sea of orange will always biased me. I love the paw on the helmet and the classic pairing orange and white with just a touch of purple. Though, I can absolutely do without the purple jerseys and purple pants.

Game(s) of the Week

Week one of the College Football Season will be dominated by the two non-BCS schools that get the most press: Boise State and TCU. Boise State plays Virgina Tech and TCU plays Oregon State. I know its the first game of the season for Boise State and TCU but these are must win, statement games. If they want to continue to hang with the big boys in the standings they must win. I think that both will and decisively as well.

I see Boise State beating Virgina Tech 27-13. Kellen Moore is unflappable and will be able to handle the pressure of the VaTech. Boise State has an underrated defense (see last years game against TCU) and will be able to contain the VaTech run game forcing them to throw the ball. TCU, with a chip the size of Texas on their shoulder, will dispatch a very scrappy, tough Oregon State team 38-28 at Cowboys Stadium. TCU will need to contain the Beavers ground attack but the Horned Frogs will present match up problems on both sides of the ball for the spunky Beavers.

Wednesday Night's All Right for Fighting, Too

So the Marlins and Nationals not only threw the baseball around last night in Miami but also threw some punches. The skirmish began as a match up between the Nationals' Nyjer Morgan and the Marlins' pitcher Chris Volstad and quickly lead to a full scale melee. This was one of the better bench clearing brawls in a while (but not epic like the Nolan Ryan beat down of Robin Ventura so much so that MLB has lead an effort to remove it from the web). The two best things about this brawl were 1) the clothes line thrown by Marlins' first baseman Gaby Sanchez and 2) there were more players on the field than fans in the stands. Enjoy.